Perhaps we are in a recovery and we don’t know it…Beware of Consensus!

Tags : covid-19
July 13, 2020

Apologies we did not get an update out last week.  We took some time off and I made a conscious effort to try and stay away from the computer.  It was actually quite refreshing, but I still snuck in a few peaks here and there.    Now back to business!

Here are some items that I think are important or interesting for you to know.

  • PPP Program Update Through 6/30/2020 – There is still about $130B of funds available.  The number has stabilized at this level for the last few weeks.  This week’s update provides some interesting additional data about jobs and loan approval rates by State.  PPP keeps hanging on.
  • PPP Keeps Hanging On.  If you have not applied yet, the deadline was extended last week to August 8th.  Check out the article by Alan Gassman at  It provides an excellent overview of the current state of the PPP program.
  • Perhaps we are in a recovery and we don’t know it…Beware of Consensus!  If you look at the latest employment numbers and other economic indicators, things are pointing positive.  However, the naysayers (i.e. analysts) tell us its only temporary.  I believe you can succeed in any economic environment.  You do not have to participate in a downturn, if it actually happens as analysts predict (As an aside, I was an equity analyst for the first part of my career and I was wrong a heck of a lot more than I was right.  By the way, my numbers tended to be in-line with consensus numbers).
  • Who took out PPP loans? – if you are interested, there is a list of each business that took out loans of >$150k.  It should not take long to peruse, there are only 661,219 rows of information.  For those that took out less than $150k, you only get the high-level data without the names.  I am not sure what is magical about $150k for name recognition.  Maybe you can turn the <$150k data into a business name guessing game?

Please see all of our prior updates at the this link or if you would like to be added to our email list, please click here

As always, please don’t hesitate to email myself (, Andy Miller (, Christian Miller ( or anyone in our office with questions or comments.  


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